Looking to November

It’s no secret the 2010 Midterm Elections will be tough for the party in power – as most Midterm Elections are. I journeyed today into the future, to get a better understanding of what November might hold for the American political landscape.

On the surface, it looks good. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has the GOP picking up seven Senate seats, 27 House seats and four Governorships. Unfortunately, however, that would only put a dent – albeit a considerably large one – in the Democratic Majority.

The Washington Times ran a story today indicating though the GOP may be in a little better shape than expected.

The long-shot bid by Republicans to retake control of the Senate is suddenly in play, as the prospect of high-profile Republican candidates entering the fray has pushed the GOP even or ahead in polling for 10 races.

The potential candidacies of former Republican Govs. George E. Pataki in New York and Tommy G. Thompson in Wisconsin are improving the polling fortunes of the party as it pursues seats long in the hands of Democrats, while the anti-government “tea party” movement has provided momentum to Republican challengers in states such as Florida, Arkansas and Pennsylvania.

“If the election were held today, the Republicans could come close to winning back the Senate, if not actually win it,” said pollster John Zogby.

Optimistic assessment, no doubt, but there’s no reason not to be optimistic. President Obama and Congress have failed to deliver on many of the promises made coming in to office. Partly because the American people have said no and partly because Republicans have played good politics.

There’s more at stake than just numbers in the House and Senate. The Democratic Majority Leader, Harry Reid, is very much in danger of losing re-election in Nevada. For Democrats, that may be good news more so than bad because Reid has a history of fumbling on important legislation  - i.e. health care reform.

More importantly though – what’s at stake is momentum going into 2012. There are another 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2012 and another round of House elections. If the GOP makes considerable gains, which it will, we’re likely to see a flurry of Democratic retirements going in to 2012. That’s not even taking into account what impact this may have on the 2012 White House race.

The end game is this: Republicans are going to make waves in November that likely won’t come to shore until 2012. Fortunately, politics isn’t always about the short term.