Thoughts on the President’s Strategy for Afghanistan

The President’s decision to send 30,000 new troops to Afghanistan is the right decision. Unfortunately, the attached conditions leave me disappointed. While I understand the political difficulty of the President’s decisions, I hoped for another outcome.

White House Photographer Pete Souza

President Obama in his address on “the Way Forward” in Afghanstian said he would commit 30,000 new troops to the war-torn country, but stipulated they will begin withdrawing in 18 months.

I recognize the tough political position President Obama is in. The left is already blasting him for creating a “surge” and the right, though more friendly than the left, is upset at the timetable.

His decision reflects the difficulty of bridging domestic politics and international relations. Throughout U.S. history, policymakers have faced this dilemma. Moreover, throughout the recorded history of international relations, policymakers have faced this dilemma. How does one reconcile the “national interest” with public opinion, the influence of democratic institutions like Congess and other political interests, i.e. the people who donate money and drive your policy?

President Obama was elected on a platform of change. Thus is his difficulty of continuing the war in Afghanistan much the way his predecessor did and thus is the reason for the timetable – to pacify his political pace. You can’t blame him, it is an obviously necessary move if he doesn’t want to ruin his party’s midterm elections in 2010 or his reelection campaign in 2012.

Having admitted that I understand his logic and reasoning for implementing a time table, I still have to share my distaste. I hoped that the President might put politics aside for the sake of victory.

It comes down to this question: do we have a vital interest in a peaceful and allied Afghanistan? I would answer yes and say furthermore, we have an interest in a peaceful and allied Middle East. That includes Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Iraq and beyond. Because defeat in Afghanistan would allow the Taliban to operate functionally, Afghanistan is a country of vital interest to the security of the United States. Lest we not forget from where the terrorist attacks of September 11 were orchestrated.

The President disagrees, I believe and has done so by making evident his lack of desire to achieve total victory in Afghanistan. He has scaled back the war on terror, actually ended it, and this move further reiterates that point.

The President has developed an exit strategy not predicated on victory. He has done so for the two reasons I already mentioned: (a) domestic political influence and (b) failure to understand the vital importance of a peaceful and allied Afghanistan.

Does President Obama’s Approval Rating Mean Anything?

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has been hovering just below 50 percent this week. According to Gallup’s three-day rolling average, only 49 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing as President.

Symbolically, it is somewhat significant. Historically, it might not matter at all. Addressing the latter first, it should be duly noted that although President Obama is the fourth fastest President to fall below 50 percent, every President but John Kennedy since Harry Truman has done so.

Although the current decline below 50% has symbolic significance, most of the recent decline in support for Obama occurred in July and August. He began July at 60% approval. The ongoing, contentious debate over national healthcare reform has likely served as a drag on his public support, as have continuing economic problems. Americans are also concerned about the Obama administration’s reliance on government spending to solve the nation’s problems and the growing federal budget deficit. Since September, Obama’s approval rating had been holding in the low 50s and, although it has reached 50% numerous times, it had never dropped below 50% until now.

Of the post-World War II presidents, Obama now is the fourth fastest to drop below the majority approval level, doing so in his 10th month on the job. Gerald Ford dropped below 50% approval during his third month in office, and Bill Clinton did so in his fourth month. Ronald Reagan, like Obama, also dropped below 50% in his 10th month in office, though Reagan’s drop occurred a few days sooner in that month (Nov. 13-16, 1981) than did Obama’s (Nov. 17-19, 2009).

Of all the Presidents who dropped below 50 percent, Truman, Richard Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and George W. Bush were all re-elected. Only Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were not.

Which way will things go for President Obama? The answer probably depends on health care and Afghanistan.

If Congress is able to work through health care reform, with or without a public option, the President may be able to claim victory and use this as a spring board in the 2010 mid-term elections and then in 2012. Also, if his Afghanistan decision is well received with the public, his numbers could rebound.

These are only two of the issues President Obama will have to address and it is still early in his term. But, the President’s opportunity to get his agenda passed is slowly waning. Next spring will be his last opportunity with this Congress. After elections in 2010, he’ll have the early part of 2011, but after that campaigning will begin again for 2012.

In sum, the trend for President Obama probably means little, if anything at all. Nonetheless, it has to be troubling for a President who was so popular just 10 months ago to have fallen this far.