The Future of the GOP

After browsing The American Blog today, I wanted to share a quote from John Fortier on the future of the Republican Party.

Make no mistake about it – the Democratic Party is growing. It’s demographics – hispanics, high-educated white voters – are growing and more and more young people are associating themselves as social liberals who care little for fiscal or economic conservatism.

That spells trouble for Republicans and according to Fortier it means:

The GOP needs more Bob McDonnells and Scott Browns, not wide-eyed, good government types or stodgy conservatives, but people with a mix of conservatism and at least a part of the populism that is mainstream in the middle class.

Fortier is addressing an original piece, which might be worthwhile to look at in part. Henry Olsen at National Review addresses what may lead to the downfall of the GOP.

My thoughts on the issue are fairly straightforward. The Republican Party needs to have a positive voice that advocates fiscal discipline, pro-growth economic policies and a strong national defense plan. The approach should be level-headed, involve moderation and seek pragmatic solutions to policy challenges.

We should concentrate first on balancing the federal budget by reforming the tax code and cutting unnecessary spending. Tax reform should create a more capital friendly environment that encourages small-business growth and corporate investment at home, not abroad. Entitlement spending should be near the top of the list when it comes to what needs reform. Our social programs cannot be responsible for bankrupting our nation. Underwriting the world’s security is expensive and unfortunately, we must make a choice between financing a modern welfare state or being the world’s most powerful – and most secure – country.

We should call for the continued reform and strengthening of our armed forces. Unfortunately for Congress, this may mean their districts will lose important government contracts.

Social issues like gay-marriage and abortion should be addressed at the state-level where the people can make their own decisions. We should recognize, however, the inevitable fact that the Court is more than likely to address these issues from an equal rights standpoint.

Our family first approach should advocate an egalitarian system and a business world that accepts women as part of the workforce and as mothers.

Health care and education also need serious reform. There are a number of other issues that deserve attention, but we must develop priorities.

Thoughts on Health Care Reform

Does President Obama’s Approval Rating Mean Anything?

President Barack Obama’s approval rating has been hovering just below 50 percent this week. According to Gallup’s three-day rolling average, only 49 percent of Americans approve of the job he is doing as President.

Symbolically, it is somewhat significant. Historically, it might not matter at all. Addressing the latter first, it should be duly noted that although President Obama is the fourth fastest President to fall below 50 percent, every President but John Kennedy since Harry Truman has done so.

Although the current decline below 50% has symbolic significance, most of the recent decline in support for Obama occurred in July and August. He began July at 60% approval. The ongoing, contentious debate over national healthcare reform has likely served as a drag on his public support, as have continuing economic problems. Americans are also concerned about the Obama administration’s reliance on government spending to solve the nation’s problems and the growing federal budget deficit. Since September, Obama’s approval rating had been holding in the low 50s and, although it has reached 50% numerous times, it had never dropped below 50% until now.

Of the post-World War II presidents, Obama now is the fourth fastest to drop below the majority approval level, doing so in his 10th month on the job. Gerald Ford dropped below 50% approval during his third month in office, and Bill Clinton did so in his fourth month. Ronald Reagan, like Obama, also dropped below 50% in his 10th month in office, though Reagan’s drop occurred a few days sooner in that month (Nov. 13-16, 1981) than did Obama’s (Nov. 17-19, 2009).

Of all the Presidents who dropped below 50 percent, Truman, Richard Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and George W. Bush were all re-elected. Only Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were not.

Which way will things go for President Obama? The answer probably depends on health care and Afghanistan.

If Congress is able to work through health care reform, with or without a public option, the President may be able to claim victory and use this as a spring board in the 2010 mid-term elections and then in 2012. Also, if his Afghanistan decision is well received with the public, his numbers could rebound.

These are only two of the issues President Obama will have to address and it is still early in his term. But, the President’s opportunity to get his agenda passed is slowly waning. Next spring will be his last opportunity with this Congress. After elections in 2010, he’ll have the early part of 2011, but after that campaigning will begin again for 2012.

In sum, the trend for President Obama probably means little, if anything at all. Nonetheless, it has to be troubling for a President who was so popular just 10 months ago to have fallen this far.

True cost of health care: $3 trillion

That’s $3,000,000,000,000.

The new number comes from Senator Judd Gregg and includes some funny math. You can read an explanation of that at HotAir.

Senator Judd Gregg (R-NH), ranking member of the Senate Budget Committee today commented on the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) more detailed cost estimate of the manager’s amendment to the House health reform bill.

Senator Gregg stated, “The CBO estimate released last night finally sheds light on the smoke and mirrors game the majority has been playing with the cost of their health care reform proposal. Over the first 10 years, this legislation builds in gross new spending of $1.7 trillion – and most of the new spending doesn’t even start until 2014. Once that spending is fully phased in, the House Democratic bill rings up at more than $3 trillion over ten years.

As a side note, Heritage says $2.6 trillion.

Obviously, the real answer to how much health care reform will cost is: We don’t know. Including cuts to medicare and tax increases, it’s obvious that the plan will be expensive.

This is more than a Republican Party talking point, however. Spending this much money could have serious repercussions on the fiscal solvency of the federal government. Entitlements never get smaller. Social safety net programs, like Medicare/Medicaid and Social Security and now health care, only get bigger.

With that in mind, even if health care does lower the deficit over the next ten years and even if it only costs $1.2 trillion in that decade, what about the next ten years, or twenty?